The price of the hottest coal continues to fall, a

2022-07-26
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Coal prices continue to fall, thermal power enterprises will have a hard time

after the Spring Festival, affected by many factors, the domestic coal price began to decline. The lower coal price means that the production cost of fire power enterprises will also decline

as the so-called "duck prophet of Spring River warming", after the recent decline in coal prices, individual thermal power stocks in the A-share market have begun to respond. So, will coal prices continue to decline in 2018? Can thermal power stocks take the opportunity to welcome performance opportunities

the coal price fell

the downward trend of coal price that began after the Spring Festival is still continuing. According to the latest statistics of Qinhuangdao coal, from march7,2018 to march13,2018, the Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 572 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton month on month. Bohai Rim spot index 5500 kcal 658 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton month on month; 597 yuan/ton for 5000 kcal, 28 yuan/ton for month on month decline. According to the collection and calculation results of the transaction prices of the six ports around the Bohai Sea, during the reporting period, 14 of the 24 specifications saw their prices decline, with a decline of 5 yuan/ton, and the remaining 10 were flat month on month

in the futures market, the main contract of thermal coal fell all the way after hitting a stage high of 679.8 yuan on January 26, and hit 60% on March 13; 3. The moisture content of the wall body gradually increased to a new low of 5.2. So far, from January 26 to now, the largest cumulative decline in the main contract of thermal coal has exceeded 10%

when talking about the downward trend of coal prices, Zhang Min, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, told the securities times that after the Spring Festival, the domestic coal production has increased and the supply has tended to be loose, but the demand has continued to fall. "Especially with the warming of the weather, the main peak period of coal consumption has passed. The heating period in most parts of the north will end on March 15, which greatly reduces the demand for coal." Zhang Min said that in fact, March and April of each year are the traditional off-season for coal consumption in China. As the demand side is falling and continues to fall, it is inevitable that the coal price will decline

for a long time, power generation enterprises have been large consumers of coal, but the inventory of the six power plants is at a high level, which to a large extent suppresses the trend of coal prices. "In fact, the power plant has been pressing down on coal prices, trying to reduce the purchase price of power coal." Zhang Min said. It is reported that as of March 13, the inventory of coastal power plants of the six power groups totaled 14.1128 million tons, a new high since November 21, 2014

Huachuang Securities said in the research report that in the past two weeks, the coal water transport price is expected to remain stable and weak. In terms of price index, the power plant will further depress the coal price by virtue of its strong bargaining power. The thermal coal price index may be further pressured downward, while the coking coal price index will continue to operate smoothly under the support of "one ventilation and three prevention"

Bank of China International also pointed out in the report released a few days ago that the price of thermal coal is still falling recently, mainly due to poor demand and high inventory. The acceptance of the existing price by the power plant is still not high, and there is little transaction at the port, so there is no demand. This round of coal price has fallen all the way since reaching the peak of 765 yuan on February 2. At present, it is still in a relatively high position. It is still a certain distance from the upper limit of 600 yuan of the regulation range of the national development and Reform Commission. The short-term thermal coal price is still easy to fall but difficult to rise

thermal power stocks smell good

in 2017, coal prices rose sharply, making domestic coal enterprises make a lot of money. At the same time, thermal power enterprises suffer. The data shows that among the 23 listed thermal power companies that have issued 2017 performance forecasts, only 2 companies are expected to increase their performance in 2017, 1 company is expected to turn around its losses in 2017, 13 companies are expected to reduce their performance in 2017, in addition, 1 company is expected to continue its losses and 6 companies are expected to make their first losses

the first increase in the market share of coal in the automotive industry is an important reason for the pre reduction of performance and losses of many listed thermal power companies in 2017. For example, Jidian Co., Ltd. estimates that the net profit loss of the company in 2017 will be 335million yuan to 355million yuan. The main reason for the operating performance loss is that the fuel cost of thermal power has risen sharply. Affected by the supply and demand relationship of the coal market, the fuel cost has increased by 526million yuan, affecting the year-on-year profit reduction of the thermal power sector; Huadian energy is expected to lose about 950million yuan to 1.05 billion yuan in 2017, and it is expected to lose 800million yuan to 900million yuan after deducting non profits. When explaining the reasons for the loss, Huadian Energy said that the cost increased by 1.1 billion yuan due to the sharp year-on-year rise in coal prices

the rise in coal prices has a direct impact on the operating performance of thermal power enterprises, which also led to the poor performance of the secondary market share prices of related thermal power listed companies in 2017. However, due to the recent decline in coal prices, it is good for thermal power stocks in the secondary market, which has led to the recovery of the entire power sector. From March 1 to March 14, the power index of GICs level IV industry has risen from 3047.87 to 3160.49. The recent performance of related stocks is also commendable. From March 1 to March 14, Shennan power a had the largest cumulative increase of more than 40%, and closed two limit boards in a row on March 7 and March 8; The largest cumulative increase of China Construction Investment energy also exceeded 20%, and it also showed a trend of daily limit on March 8; Dalian thermal power, Huaneng International and Yuneng holdings also have good market performance

"if the coal price can continue to decline, it is likely that a further meeting will be held in Berlin on march11,2015 to further strengthen the secondary market trend of power stocks, especially those related to thermal power." A securities firm investment adviser said

according to Zhang Min, when the actual transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port is about 630 yuan/ton, it is the breakeven point of the power plant. When the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port is lower than 630 yuan/ton, the power plant will be profitable; On the contrary, when the 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port is higher than 630 yuan/ton, the power plant will suffer a loss. At present, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port has dropped to 645 yuan/ton

it also depends on the face of coal

among the cost composition of thermal power enterprises, the purchase cost of electric coal accounts for more than 50% of the operating cost of thermal power enterprises, which is closely related to the operating conditions of thermal power enterprises. Therefore, the trend of coal prices in 2018 will have an important impact on the operating performance of thermal power enterprises within the year. Because of this, the performance of thermal power stocks in 2018 depends largely on the face of coal prices

"it is expected that coal prices will show a trend of first falling and then rising in 2018." Zhang Min believes that from the current trend, the coal price has a high probability of overall decline in the first half of the year, and there will be a chance of rebound in the second half of the year. However, the annual price peak will not exceed 2017, and the overall price will fall on the basis of last year

the relevant personnel of Xingxing National Standards Committee said that the weekly report on the coal industry of industrial research also pointed out a few days ago that the National Energy Administration recently issued the guiding opinions on energy work in 2018, proposing that China's coal output target in 2018 is about 3.7 billion tons, while the national raw coal output in 2017 is 3.52 billion tons. Based on this, the output in 2018 will increase by 5.1%, exceeding the growth rate of 3.2% in 2017, which also reflects the policy expectation of the regulator to release the output. The price of thermal coal began to fall after reaching 765 yuan/ton in early February this year. At present, it has fallen to 645 yuan/ton. The highest price of coal in the whole year may have passed

securities learned in the interview that researchers in the power industry are relatively optimistic in the face of falling coal prices. For example, zhengdandan of Zheshang Securities said that at the end of January 2018, Huaneng, Datang, Huadian and the state household appliance Investment Corporation jointly submitted the emergency report on the current severe situation of power coal supply guarantee to the national development and Reform Commission, which to some extent reflected the current operating dilemma of power enterprises. Combined with the current trend of coal prices, the improvement of the cost side will be the main theme in 2018. The subsequent coal prices are expected to return to a reasonable range of yuan/ton with the support of supply release and policy guidance, which is conducive to the continuous improvement of the profits of thermal power enterprises at the bottom

it is worth noting that, in addition to the positive impact of the decline in coal prices on power enterprises, there are also expectations of mergers and acquisitions in the power industry. On March 6, ningjizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the merger and reorganization of steel, coal and power enterprises should be encouraged in accordance with the principles of enterprise subject, government guidance and market-oriented operation, so as to form a group of backbone enterprise groups with strong competitiveness as soon as possible and optimize the structural layout. The power industry has always been recognized as an industry with excess capacity. If mergers and acquisitions can be carried out in the industry, it will undoubtedly help eliminate backward capacity. Such expectations also deserve the attention of investors in the secondary market

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